To make this a reality we must first accept that the results of NUS sabbatical elections are already decided before the conference begins. A successful election strategy is measured in years: those last days at the conference are just the finishing touches. In 2011, Labour Students is the only national organisation which sufficiently organises for these elections. It supports its members to become elected officers in student unions, fills the conference floor with sympathetic delegates and makes sure that delegates know exactly how to vote to maximise seats. We on the left must therefore replicate the winning strategies and improve the weaker ones where we can. All we need to do is think in the long-term.

So here is a proposal: my ideal five-year plan for a successful progressive left student movement in NUS.

Step 1 – Institutional Elections: Delegates and Sabbatical Officers
At this year’s NUS conference I was amazed to discover that a Labour Student in my delegation had been sent a text from the leadership outlining the order in which to vote for Labour candidates (thus ensuring that each of two Labour candidates won exactly half of the Labour first preferences). I’m not proposing that we organise ourselves in the same way, but we do at least need to make sure that the conference is filled with lefties.

Of course, this is easier said than done. We need to be willing to spend a couple of weeks each year mobilising for NUS elections. This means taking a long term perspective, balancing these commitments with our respective fights with university managements over course closures. Moreover, we need to be sharing expertise and resources with groups elsewhere. Ideally, we need a formalised network of information and tactics swapping.

More effort still should be put into each institution’s sabbatical elections, as these have a greater payoff but are much more difficult to win than delegate elections. Like it or not, student union sabbatical officers make up an increasingly large proportion of the institutions that send delegates. Furthermore, candidates for the NUS full-time positions are considered more credible if they’ve had past experience as a sabbatical officer, and they have more contacts on the national level.

The payoff will not be immediate – but until the conference floor if covered in lefties, can we really expect the elections to go our way?

Step 2 – The National Executive Committee (NEC)
The NEC is a place where we can immediately win seats. We already have enough delegates (and sabbaticals) for this to be possible. This year we won 4 seats on the block of 15, and would probably have won 5 if we’d run another FE (Further Education) candidate. Next year we should be aiming for 5 or 6. These seats are important for two reasons. First, they allow us to have a lot of say in NUS’ direction without winning any difficult full-time positions. Second, NEC members are in a strong position to stand in VP and Presidential elections.

There are many different routes to these positions. Our higher profile candidates should take the seats on the block of 15. Experienced sabbatical officers should support each other into getting elected at the ‘Zone Conferences’. And we must not overlook the importance of the sections (part-time, mature, international, post-graduate) and liberation campaigns (black, LGBT, women’s, disabled), where we have had much success in the past. The structures have been designed to stop us from taking too large a proportion of seats on the NEC, so we need to use a diversity of strategies. This is by no means impossible: after all, the Scottish Parliament was designed to stop the SNP winning a majority.

Step 3 – VPs
Now for the full-time positions. Here we have to pace ourselves; we must not try to run before we can walk. At first we should only aim to elect one VP. If we make one candidate our priority, our chance of winning will be much higher. We can make sure that s/he is absolutely everywhere in the build up to the campaign and we can hammer home why our candidate is the best one while the student right (or centre-left…) is focusing on an entirely different position. My suspicion from looking at this year’s election results is that many delegates who support the incumbents could be convinced to vote for one lefty VP as a counter balance. My gut reaction is that our easiest target this year is VP Higher Education but that’s by no means certain.

This is not to say we should rule out running multiple candidates next year – we certainly should run them. My point is that we need to think tactically and draw a distinction between winnable seats, where we unite to get the candidate elected, and unwinnable seats which we use as a forum for making our points and supporting the slate.

Of course, this requires that we put our factional differences aside. If we’re only aiming for one or two VPs each election then most factions won’t be represented. But, if we take a long-term perspective, then over the years each faction will have its opportunities.

Step 4 – President
This is the obvious final step, but all too often it’s presented as the first and only step. Electing a president will be the easiest thing in the world once we have a couple of VPs, a supportive NEC full and a conference floor full of sympathetic delegates. More importantly, if we want to maintain leadership over a long period then pushing for one presidential candidate isn’t enough – we need union sabbaticals, an NEC and string of VPs to act as presidents-in-waiting. We are not ready yet, so unless we get in by a fluke we can’t expect this to happen anytime soon. But by April 2016 we can be victorious.

And then we can get on with all the important stuff like much-needed democratic reforms, and fighting for the free, fair and funded education that NUS used to endorse.

This is where the Labour Party is at right now.

And part of this re-defining of the party has involved the re-surfacing of the age-old question: Should Labour contest elections in Northern Ireland?

The question is particularly relevant as Northern Irish members of Labour (now that they’re allowed to join) feed into this process of re-definition.

Through the decades of The Troubles, there have been many attempts to organise the Labour Party in NI – a ‘Campaign for Labour Representation’ sought to persuade Labour to stand in the late 1970s, continued through the 80s, but came to nothing. After decades of not accepting members from the province (instead encouraging members to join the SDLP), the Labour Party finally permitted Northern Irish members to join in 2003 – but only off the back of legal advice. This was followed by the setting up of a formal Northern Ireland constituency organisation in 2009 – again, after the threat of legal action.

Labour – or at least, the Northern Ireland members of Labour – had hoped to stand candidates in the recent local elections; that window of opportunity has now passed without any Labour candidates on any ballot. Despite this, the prospect of Labour standing in Northern Ireland in the future seems like a possibility.

But why?

The argument I hear most often (from a few friends involved in flirtation with Labour) is that it would bring a progressive voice to Northern politics. Would it? Adam Ramsay has already written articulately here on why Labour are not progressive, I don’t need to repeat that here. Those Northern members of Labour might rightly point back to the honourable progressive traditions of the old Northern Ireland Labour Party. But that was a democratic socialist party – not a Tory Lite party. Not that anyone I know in Labour NI are Blairites – but is the idea to present a democratic socialist platform? If so, organising Ed Miliband’s party in Northern Ireland won’t accomplish that. Some of the people that I know have joined because they hate what the Tories are doing – and rightly so – but it’s important not to divorce the Labour Party in Northern Ireland (if it stood in elections) from the same party that disappointed us all so much when it was in government. If NI Labour is going to be more progressive than its parent party, should it be part of it?

Another argument is the idea that it will fight sectarianism. Despite the seductive idea of a progressive party that could unite working people in huge numbers on both sides of the divide, Labour’s entry into Northern Ireland wouldn’t be a panacea to sectarianism. The issues dividing communities and the ingrained voting behaviour and attitudes run much deeper than simply who you choose to vote for. A red rose and a name on a ballot paper isn’t going to solve that – and previous attempts to organise Labour groupings in Northern Ireland (the list is endless – Labour Party of Northern Ireland, Labour ’87, Newtownabbey Labour Party, Labour Coalition, etc) have attracted little success. Will this attempt really be different?

Another off-putting factor for me is the way in which the Labour Party treats its Northern Irish members.  Miliband’s first visit to NI came as a shock to the local Labour activists, and he didn’t even bother to meet with them. Even before this, it was the threat of legal action that allowed these activists to become members of Labour, and even more cajoling for them to be allowed to form a constituency group. Labour have had to be dragged kicking and screaming into Northern Ireland. Now its members fight their party for the right to go out and win votes for them.

From an outsider’s perspective, I’d have given up by now. Their perseverance is admirable. Labour is lucky to have people dedicated enough in the province to keep at it this long. To name but one, Queen’s University Belfast lecturer Boyd Black has been campaigning on the issue since the early 80s. Maybe Labour doesn’t deserve such dedication. If the Labour leadership haven’t got their heart in it, should those members contest elections on behalf of a party that treats them with such contempt?

So what is the natural home for progressive voters and activists in Northern Ireland? There’s a party out there whose policies are in tune with many Labour activists, but I would say that wouldn’t I? In any case, I doubt the party that’s “relaxed about people getting filthy rich,” – the party of cuts, tuition fees, private finance initiatives and the war in Iraq -can be the progressive future of Northern Irish politics. Progressive activists belong elsewhere.

Several of our contributors will be at counts around the country and we’ll aim to bring you all the news and gossip from those as the night progresses.

So sit back and enjoy, or, preferably, sit forward and join in in the comments.

00.29: Adam Ramsay

I’m asuming, by the way, that eveyone has seen quite how much the AV referendum has fallen by – it’s currently looking like it’s 69% to 31%. Pleased to say though that my current home town, Oxford, voted yes by 54%. Even Brighton voted no (49% to 51%).

Interestingly, apparently the only Scottish contsituencies to go yes in the end were Edinburgh Central and Glasgow Kelvin – big student/academic filled seats. This is despite early polls showing big leads for the yes campaign in Scotland.

My experience from Cardiff on polling day was that lots of poeple were voting no because they didn’t really understand the system, or why it was better – a good number said that they wanted PR, but this wasn’t PR, and they didn’t really understand why it was better. Which is a shame. If there is any solice for the yes campaign though, it seems unlikely that anything they could have done could have significantly swung a vote of this scale. People, whether or not they would like PR, just didn’t seem willing to take the risk of changing a system when they didn’t really understand why it was better.

23.40: Peter McColl

In other news from the Assembly elections, it looks like the DUP have finally got the hang squeezing the maximum number of seats out of their vote through effective vote management. They are maximising their vote in a way that might allow them to pull away from Sinn Fein as largest party.

Elsewhere it looks like Dawn Purvis is in a bit of trouble. Dawn’s a bit of a favourite of mine, bringing a unique working class voice for social justice and feminism to the Assembly. She very bravely left the loyalist-linked PUP over their feuding. Currently she’s in seventh place and may be relying on transfers from the PUP’s Brian Ervine to get elected.

In Foyle long-time radical Eamon McCann is in with a better chance of getting elected. He’s in sixth place out of six on first preferences. It all depends on where SDLP and Sinn Fein transfers go. McCann would add a very distinctive voice to the Assembly. He’s a veteran of the Civil Rights marches in the 1960s and 70s.

23.27: Peter McColl

It’s not so clear where the Alan McFarlane votes will go. This story all goes back to the alliance between the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists before the last election. The spectacularly mis-named UNCUF imposed Conservative candidates in a number of constituencies in the north of Ireland. North Down was one.

Sylvia Hermon, the local UUP MP refused to take the Conservative whip (she normally votes with Labour) and was kicked out of hte party.  She ‘ran on her record’ and scored a huge victory. McFarlane left the UUP in sympathy with Sylvia, so may well not pick up the transfers from disaffected UUP voters. These votes may transfer to the (already elected) DUP members, or simply stop. Some independent-minded voters may well transfer to the independent-minded Greens.

It will be interesting to see how these votes do transfer, but it’s not over for Aggie yet…

23.01: Adam Ramsay

OK, so, let’s have a proper look where we are in the North Down seat where Northern Irish Green leader Steve Agnew is hoping to hold on to the AM post Green had before here. Brian Wilson was already a popular local politican when he stood for the Greens, with a big personal vote, so Steve will do well to hold on here. Also, one of the Alliance candidates – Anne Wilson – is Brian Wilson’s wife. Results taken UTV:

Candidate		Party		Count Elected	1st Pref	% 1st Pref.
Alex Easton		DUP		1	5,175	18.4%
Gordon Dunne		DUP		0	3,741	13.3%
Peter Weir		DUP		0	3,496	12.4%
Stephen Farry		All		0	3,131	11.1%
Steven Agnew		Others		0	2,207	7.9%
Anne Wilson		All		0	2,100	7.5%
Alan McFarland		Others		0	1,879	6.7%
Alan Chambers		Others		0	1,765	6.3%
Leslie Cree		UUP		0	1,585	5.6%
Colin Breen		UUP		0	1,343	4.8%
Liam Logan		SDLP		0	768	2.7%
Fred McGlade		Others		0	615	2.2%
Conor Keenan		SF		0	293	1.0%

Remember, this is an STV election, where 6 candidates will be elected. By my calculations, quota is 4014 – you need 4014 votes to be elected (this is a turnout of 29098/(6 seats +1).

So far, Alex Easton, a DUP candidate, has been elected as he had more than 4011 votes in the first round. His surplus (the portion of each vote that he didn’t need) is now being redistributed. Presumably these will go to the other 2 DUP candidates, who came 2nd and 3rd. At this point, Gordon Dunne will be elected, and then Peter Weir.

The surpluses from will then be redistributed mostly to the UUP. But no one else will have enough votes, and so first the Sinn Fein candidate Conor Keenan, and then Fred McGlade (whose UKIP) will have their votes transferred. SF votes will probably mostly go to the SDLP, though some will go Green. Then the SDLP candidate goes, and will mostly transfer his votes (+ the votes that have come to him) to Steve, our friendly Green (and he is lovely). This should take Steve up to somewhere around the 2800 mark (our resident expert Peter reckons almost all the Republican votes will go this way).

This is when it will get hair raising for Steve. because at this point, the UUP candidates will both be eliminated. As Independent member Alan Mcfarland is a former UUP Assembly Member, he is likely to pick up nearly all of these transfers, meaning he could well leapfrog those ahead of him and be the 4th person elected – though it isn’t clear how much he’ll have to split these tranfers with the other independent candidate, and it isn’t clear if Steve will pick up a few of them too.

If these UUP votes all go straight to Mr McFarland, and very few go to Steve, then this could mean he’s in trouble. Once McFarland is elected, it seems likely that many of those votes will then go to the 2 Alliance candidates (they are seen as a unionist party), potentially squeezing them ahead of Steve. However, as Steve will likely pick up a few transfers at each of the above rounds, this could keep him in the game long enough for Ann Wilson to be knocked out, and her transfers would likely then send him in. We shall see as the rounds develop over the next few hours – you can follow the live action over at UTV, if I’m not managing to keep you updated.

22.23: Adam Ramsay

- our NI and psephology expert Peter has revised his projection and say he now seems to stand a very good chance – likely to be 3 DUP 2 Alliance and 1 Green… we’ll see.

22.21: Adam Ramsay

You can follow the count in NI as it happens here: http://www.u.tv/election2011/Constituency.aspx?id=8

22.08: Adam Ramsay

+ I hear from Northern Irealnd that it’s not looking like Steve Agnew is going to make it. Likely that he will lbe bumped out by the 2nd Alliance candidate – who happens to be the wife of former Green Assembly member, Brian Wilson. This is a huge shame.

22.07: Adam Ramsay

Also, it’s been confirmed that we’ve only got the 2 seats back in Holyrood – Patrick in Glasgow, and Alison Johnson replacing Robin in the Lothians. Alison has been a cllr in Meadows and Morningside for the last 4 years, and was Robin’s assistant in Parliament throughout his time there.

22.03: Adam Ramsay

OK, just to wrap this up, a few final things from me:

Lots of Green gains in councils across the country, and I thik it looks like we’ve held all of our seats. The below is from the party website. Well done to all of our councillors, and particularly to everyone in Brighton, who have become the first local Greens to be the biggest party on a council:

Results to be posted here as they come in (last updated 16:50, 6 May 2011)

HOLDS

- Bradford (Kevin Warnes – Shipley – 42.94% - 2208 votes)
- Braintree (James Abbott and Bob Wright – Bradwell, Silverend and Rivenhall – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Geoffrey Bowden, Ben Duncan and Stephanie Powell – Queens Park – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Ania Kitcat and Jason Kitcat – Regency – 55.6%, 1696 and 1629 votes respectively)
- Brighton and Hove (Matt Follett, Bill Randall and Liz Wakefield - Hanover and Elm Grove – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Alex Phillips – Goldsmid – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Amy Kennedy – Preston Park – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Ian Davey, Lizzie Dean and Pete West - St Peter’s and North Laine – awaiting figures)
- Kirklees (Derek Hardcastle - Kirkburton – awaiting figures)
- Kirklees (Julie Stewart-Turner - Newsome – awaiting figures)
- Liverpool (John Coyne – St Michaels – 50.48%, 1978 votes)
- Middlesborough (Joe Michna – Park – awaiting figures)
- Mid Suffolk (Rachel Eburne – Haughley and Wetherden – re-elected unopposed)
- North Somerset (Tom Leimdorfer – Congesbury – 58%, 825 votes)
- Norwich (Amy Stammers - Mancroft – 42.77%, 1355 votes)
- Norwich (Denise Carlo - Nelson – 55.98%, 2059 votes)
- Norwich (Stephen Little – Town Close – 44.30%, 1763 votes)
- Norwich (Lucy Galvin – Wensum – 43.72%, 1375 votes)
- Scarborough (Dilys Cluer – Stepney – awaiting figures)
- Scarborough (Nick Harvey – Hertford – awaiting figures)
- Sheffield (Jillian Creasy – Central - 43.61%, 2530 votes)
- South Hampshire (Robert Vint – Tones Town – 25.51%, 674 votes)
- Stroud (Catherine Farrell – Nailsworth – awaiting figures)
- Stroud (Simon Pickering – Slade – awaiting figures)
- Stroud (Martin Whiteside – Thrupp – awaiting figures)
- Stroud (John Marjoram – Trinity – awaiting figures)
- Stroud (Molly Scott-Cato – Valley – awaiting figures)
- Torridge (Peter Chrisie – Bideford North – awaiting figures)
- Watford (Steve Rackett – Callowland – 58.57%, 680 votes)
- Waveney (Graham Elliott – Beccles North – awaiting figures)
- York (Andy D’Agorne and Dave Taylor – Fishergate – 52.39%, 1632 and 1422 votes respectively)

GAINS

- Brighton and Hove (Phelim Mac Cafferty and Ollie Sykes – Brunswick and Adelaide – 37.06%, 1140 and 1135 votes respectively)
- Brighton and Hove (Chris Hawtree – Central Hove – 33.21%, 1006 votes)
- Brighton and Hove (Sven Rufus and Christina Summers - Hollingbury and Stanmer – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Ruth Buckley and Rob Jarrett – Goldsmid – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Mike Jones and Leo Littman – Preston Park – awaiting figures)
- Brighton and Hove (Sue Shanks – Withdean – awaiting figures)
- Bristol (Gus Hoyt – Ashley – 42.65%, 2206 votes)
- Herefordshire (Felicity Norman – Leominster North – 28.69%, 607 votes)
- Mid Suffolk (Sarah Mansell – Elmswell and Norton – awaiting figures)
- Norwich (Jo Henderson - Thorpe Hamlet – 41%, 1328 votes)
- Reigate (Sarah Finch – Redhill East – 44.14%, 1281 votes)
- Reading (Melanie Eastwood – Park – awaiting figures)
- Solihull (Karl Macnaughton – Chelmsley Wood – 51.29%, 1349 votes)
- Solihull (Alison Walters – Smith’s Wood – 45.93%, 1066 votes)
- South Hampshire (Jacqi Hodgson – Dartington – 51.2%, 404 votes)
- South Hampshire (Alan Gorman – Totnes Town – 25.51, 639 votes)
- Stafford (Tom Harris – Forebridge – awaiting figures)
- St Albans (Simon Grover – St Albans – awaiting figures)

07.27: Alasdair Thompson

And more positive news from Bristol

Gus Hoyt has gained 42% for the Green Party defeating the Lib Dems and taking a seat in Ashley ward Bristol, where the conflict over the Stoke’s Croft Tesco has occurred.

@anothergreen

07.24: Alasdair Thompson

So I’m back up and still lots of results not in. Here’s some disappointing news from Adam in Cardiff though:

Ok, Labour have won Cardiff Central by 38 votes. That basically means we can’t get in on the list – we aren’t ahead of the LDs.

04.26: Siân Berry

Right, I’m off. But first, news in of further Green holds in Mancroft and Nelson wards on Norwich City Council, with record-breaking majorities.

Green group in Norwich now largest ever at 15 (with 7 County Councillors bringing total of Norwich elected Greens up to 22) according to @RupertRead in uppercase on twitter. Very good news!

04.21: Gary Dunion

Salmond says “Scotland has outgrown negative campaigning”. And certainly it seems as if Labour have paid the price for having no positive vision for Scotland.

04.06: Gary Dunion

Rupert Read has stood down from Norwich council at this election but the party has retained his seat:

Wensum (my ward) result: Green 1375 Lab 1208. Hold with increased majority

04.06: Siân Berry

In Norwich, Greens hold Wensum ward with increased majority, and also hold Town Close, with a solid majority of 772. Results coming in quickly from the city now…

 

03.57: Alasdair Thompson

Right, that’s me signing off for now. Need to get to UCU training at 9am. I’ll leave you all in the very capable hands of Gary and Siân though. Goodnight.

03.45: Alasdair Thompson

And another Lib Dem comes fourth in Norwich, again a former councillor. This time in Mile X ward.

03.42: Alasdair Thompson

And we’ve a result from Norwich:

Thorpe Hamlet
Green GAIN – majority 625 – Lib Dem sitting councillor comes fourth!

03.41: Alasdair Thompson

Lib Dems in England now on 40 councillors, down 81! Including 9 lost in Sheffield and 11 in Liverpool.

03.38: Gary Dunion

Just had BG editor Peter McColl on the phone, projecting Malcolm Chisholm (Labour, Edinburgh North and Leith) to be the last non-SNP constituency MSP standing in Lothians – all eight other seats to go Nat.

We reflected that we’ve both seen voters dish out out punishment beatings before, but here Labour don’t seem to be have done anything special to deserve it. It’s what they haven’t done – they haven’t given anyone a pressing reason to vote for them. That indicates a breaking down of reliable tribal voting and a raising of voters’ expectations of their politicians. Both good things in my view.

03.34: Alasdair Thompson

East Lothian
Iain Cumming Gray – Labour – 12,536 (elected)
David Berry – SNP – 12,385
Derek Scott Brownlee – Conservative – 5,344
Ettie Spencer – Liberal Democrat – 1,912

Lab HOLD. Swing of 3.1% to SNP from Lab, but Lab actually up 4.5% there. Massive Lib Dem collapse again.

03.33: Gary Dunion

Iain Gray holds on to his East Lothian seat by 151 votes. This is such a Labour bloodbath that he may come to wish he’d lost.

03.12: Alasdair Thompson

Hearing that Gray may have just held on in East Lothian after a partial recount.

03.07: Alasdair Thompson

From Edinburgh:

Lib Dems conceding unofficially they’ve lost all 3 Edinburgh seats: Western to SNP; Southern: knifeedge SNP v Lab; Central: SNP vs Lab

@severincarrell

03.00: Alasdair Thompson

After 25 councils have declared in England:

Conservative 154 cllrs down 22
Labour 218 up 57
Liberal Democrat 23 down 25
British National Party 0 down 5

02.59: Gary Dunion

London’s only local election tonight is a by-election in The Lane ward (Peckham Rye), Southwark. @Rowenna_Davis, as expected, wins for Labour; but Lib Dems beaten by 1 vote by Green Anna Plodowski.

02.56: Alasdair Thompson

So after 6 results:

SNP 41.8% +13.6%
Lab 41.2% -0.1%
Tory 14.2% -3.4%
Lib Dem 2.2% -8.1%

02.51: Alasdair Thompson

Hearing that the SNP might have taken Cumbernauld and Kilsyth and Glasgow Shettleston.

02.49: Gary Dunion

Conservative line tonight is all expectation management – successive government spokespeople have set Labour the bar of matching the Tories’ 2007 gains. Labour resurgence very unlikely to reach that level, so Tories will then spin it as a disappointing result for Labour.

02.47: Siân Berry

In the Greens’ other stronghold of Brighton and Hove City Council, votes won’t be counted until tomorrow, starting 9am.

However, independent sources observing the verification of votes tonight are cautiously predicting the possibility of a dead heat on the council between the Tories and Greens, after a huge effort by Labour to take the key Green-held seats in Queens Park ward, while the Greens look set to take a number of new seats elsewhere, including from the Tories.

The results  in Brighton and Hove *might* therefore be:

Greens 22 seats

Tories 22

Labour 10

with first place hanging on the knife-edge result in Queen’s Park. Something to look forward to following tomorrow!

02.40: Alasdair Thompson

More news of the fascist vote collapsing:

It seems that Peter Tierney has achieved the lowest ever BNP vote on Merseyside, polling a fantastic 44 votes.

The BNP vote is falling all over the country. Just heard that the BNP has also slumped in South Tyneside.

BNP’s Martin Vaughn in Hebburn North ward, south Tynside has scored 1.86%. In 2007 he polled 15.5%.

@hopenothate

02.19: Alasdair Thompson

@gary The liberal party ran here as “Liberal Party – against coalition cut backs” and called for “common ownership – nationalisation is not a four letter word”, making the bankers pay, LVT, citizen’s income,more railways and no new roads or bridges.

02.14: Alasdair Thompson

Clydesdale
Aileen Campbell – SNP – 14,931
Karen Macdonald Gillon – Labour – 10,715
Colin John McGavigan – Conservative - 4291

SNP GAIN – 8.9% swing to SNP from Labour

02.08: Gary Dunion

Hope the Liberal Party have held their 2 Liverpool seats or gained, so that they’re ahead of the Lib Dems.

02.05: Alasdair Thompson

There had been a worry among some people that holding the AV referendum on the same day as the Welsh and Scottish elections could have caused some confusion to voters. While voting on one electoral system, we’d be voting using an entirely different system, and where Greens were running with the slogan Second Vote Green. Fortunately, that fear seems to have been unfounded. Adam’s spotted just one ballot so far that’s numbered the regional ballot and put a 2 next to the Greens. We heard earlier that there were a very low number of spoilt ballots in the Scottish constituencies that have come in so far; it looks like we’ve avoided any of the problems that happened in 2007.

02.04: Gary Dunion

Lib Dems have lost every councillor in Manchester, reports @NaomiMc, while BG’s favourite Scouser @GeorginaRannard says they’re on course to lose 12 of their 13 seats in Liverpool, which they ran until a year ago.

02.00: Gary Dunion

Iain Gray’s line is “Labour up but SNP up more”. Certainly not true on results so far (down 2%) – but possible nationwide. Will watch vote shares with interest for that story.

01.43: Gary Dunion

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

Christina McKelvie – SNP – 12202 – 48.1%
Tom McCabe – Labour – 9989 – 39.4%
Margaret Mitchell – Conservative – 2547 – 10%
Ewan Hoyle – Lib Dem – 616 – 2.4%

SNP GAIN from nominal Labour

01.41: Alasdair Thompson

News from Norwich!

Green group optimistic that they’ll emerge from tonight with the largest ever group of Green councillors in the UK. Things looking “very promising” according to our source.

01.40: Siân Berry

The first Green councillor in Liverpool has been re-elected, according to @Jim_Jepps. John Coyne, a former LibDem Councillor, moved to the Greens in 2006 and has regained his seat in St Michael’s ward for the second time as a Green candidate. Well done John!

01.37: Alasdair Thompson

SNP take Hamilton and Larkhall with an 11% swing! wow.

Lib Dems on 2% again, they haven’t held a deposit yet.

01.37: Gary Dunion

The new Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency, made of bits of two safe-as-houses Labour seats, goes to Christina McKelvie.

01.26: Siân Berry

Hello – my cat and I will be updating any extra info we can glean from our sofa in Kentish Town. Only new news I have at the moment (via @Scott_Redding – of GP media team) is England and Wales Green Deputy Leader Adrian Ramsay being briefed for something on national news soon. Hope it’s to discuss massive Green surge in various places, and hope not Sky!

01.26: Alasdair Thompson

Rumour Labour have lost Glasgow Kelvin.

01.16: Alasdair Thompson

East Kilbride

Linda Fabiani – SNP – 14359 (elected)
Douglas Herbison – Liberal Democrat – 468
John Houston – Independent – 414
Andy Kerr – Labour – 12410
Graham Simpson – Conservative - 2260

SNP GAIN from Labour

01.16: Gary Dunion

Andy Kerr, once tipped as the next Scottish Labour leader, loses his East Kilbride seat. Tragically, just a few hours before that job becomes available.

01.10: Alasdair Thompson

Good news from Stoke!

BNP lose ALL 4 councillors they had in Stoke! #vote2011 – well done all

@marshajane

01.05: Alasdair Thompson

Speak for yourself Dunion, I’m stone cold sober. As hard as that is to believe.

01.01: Gary Dunion

Joining the liveblog shortly — 2008 Green candidate for Mayor of London, Siân Berry! She hasn’t had as much to drink as us.

00.56: Alasdair Thompson

First Scottish result :

Rutherglen
Labour – 12489 (elected)
SNP – 10710
Tory – 2096
Lib Dem – 1194
Ind – 633

LD down 14.8% SNP up 16.3% Lab up 1.5% Tory down 0.9%

00.52: Alasdair Thompson

And from Glasgow, the familiar refrain of Lib Dems getting a kicking:

Lib Dems have crashed and burned. On box count some westend areas grn vote 30%. Think Labour/SNP vote will decide list seats.

@claystuart

00.49: Alasdair Thompson

Should have said, we’ve now had the first council result in England. Sunderland. Where Labour are up 4 to 56 and the Tories down 4 to 14.

Also hearing that the Lib Dems have lost 12 of 13 seats in Sheffield, though that’s not declared yet.

00.45: Alasdair Thompson

@psbook reporting that Galloway’s election in Glasgow now looks “highly likely”.

Have to say I wasn’t expecting that today.

00.25: Alasdair Thompson

A Lib Dem loss in Cardiff Central would be dreadful for them, they’ve held that seat since it started in 1999 and in 2007 got 51% of the vote, to Labour’s, who came second, 22%.

00.23: Alasdair Thompson

Back to Cardiff, where tallys putting us at 5% in the Vale and 10% in Pontypridd, which is “really pretty good”. And, as seems to be a theme, bad news for the Lib Dems, who might lose Cardiff Central, which could actually be bad for us if they take a list seat instead.

00.17: Alasdair Thompson

Hearing very bad things for the Lib Dems from Edinburgh. Tallys putting them at 10% on the list in Central, a constituency they notionally hold. We’re looking like 12-13% in central, that’s a little below last time. If that pattern holds up I’d expect Alison to get in in Robin’s seat but it looks unlikely for a second Green.

00.14: Gary Dunion

Herald political reporter @paulhutcheon says the Lib Dems’ economy spokesman will soon be experiencing the coalition’s unemployment boom firsthand:

I’m hearing that Jeremy Purvis needn’t bother asking for a recount. #sp11

00.10: Alasdair Thompson

And some first news from Norwich, where there’s a chance we’ll see the first Green council – very provisional but looks like we might gain one seat and lose none. Labour have pushing us very hard there so that would be a good result, we won’t take the council but we keep moving forward and the Lib Dems get further marginalised.

00.08: Gary Dunion

Simon Hughes and Harriet Harman blamestorming the predicted referendum No vote on the Beeb. Lib Dems should have picked another day, says Harman; Labour failed to rally their troops, says Hughes.

Having spent the last few days on the Yes campaign, I can tell you neither has nailed it – the biggest blame lies with the Yes campaign leadership appointed by Nick Clegg, who have been appalling. The Yes field operation were lions led by donkeys.

00.07: Alasdair Thompson

But some good news from Cardiff for us:

Looks like we’re ahead of the Lib Dems in the ward held by the Lib Dem leader of the council

00.03: Alasdair Thompson

Some early news from Cardiff for the AV referendum:

Looks like the referendum is going as predicted – 50:50 in the ‘best’ bits of Cardiff, I’m told

23.58: Alasdair Thompson

Hearing that the turnout in Edinburgh Central might be surprisingly low. Not sure what that means for who’s going to win. Presumably that the get out the vote effort is going to have been even more important than usual, but is that good for Alex or Sarah?

23.50: Alasdair Thompson

Couple more updates from our Cardiff corresponent:

Some good samples for us in surprising corners of Cardiff… Still early doors, but nice for now #2ndvotegreen

Apparently Labour don’t think they’ll get an overall majority in Wales, & they aren’t looking that happy about Cardiff central – good sign.

23.47: Alasdair Thompson

@STVRutherglen reports that “MSP for Rutherglen expected to be unveiled at 12.45am”. Very safe Labour seat, should see James Kelly re-elected easily.

23.36: Alasdair Thompson

Ian Martin, at the WSJ, says he’s hearing well informed predictions of SNP 58 seats, Lab 40, Tories 14, Greens 8, LDs 7, Margo 1 and Galloway 1. Which would, indeed, put pro independence parties over 65. Would that actually result in a referendum, though? There’s little evidence it would pass, though more powers might well, so why risk losing? If I was the SNP I’d arrange the it to coincide with the next SP election, even if they lose, it’ll motivate their voters and 40% of the electorate who really want independence, say, won’t win the referendum but would give the SNP a good number of MSPs.

23.28: Alasdair Thompson

Hi Gary.

23.28: Gary Dunion

BTW: Hello!

23.27: Gary Dunion

Just had my Dad on the phone. He reckons the SNP might even get a majority, which would of course be the first single-party majority since devolution. More likely still, he points out, is the SNP, Greens and Margo MacDonald getting to the 65 seat mark between them, which would put a pro-referendum majority in Holyrood chamber for the first time.

23.22: Alasdair Thompson

I can now attest that Gary’s game is indeed uber-geeky fun. I got 14/16. Can you beat that? I would hope some of our readers could, I’m disappointed with myself to be honest.

23.17: Alasdair Thompson

Gary, who’ll be along in a bit to join me on the live blog tweets us “some uber-geeky election fun” A ‘contested ballot’ game for training #yes2av count agents: http://bit.ly/kdeCwn. Let us know what you think.

23.14: Alasdair Thompson

Edinburgh university’s The Student reports that

LibDem for Ed Central Alex Cole-Hamilton tells The Student he’s feeling very confident, and that the LibDem vote has been “rock solid” #sp11

Interesting if true. Alex has been out doing a lot of canvassing for months now, and has made a big deal of his opposition to fees and the Lib Dem leadership in London (despite running Nick Clegg’s leadership campaign in Scotland), maybe it paid off for him.

23.09: Alasdair Thompson

Turnout reports starting to come in now, could be very important for AV

London turnout looking like 20% in places hearing reports of 70% in some NI polling stations. #AVRef not over til it is all counted. #Yes2AV

@stephenpglenn

23.02: Alasdair Thompson

So apparently we caused a bit of confusion with our description of the Welsh (and Scottish voting systems earlier). So here’s a brief attempt to explain them to our English readers.

Each voter gets two ballots: one for a constituency seat and one for a regional list.

The constituency seats are elected by first past the post as at Westminster. The regional lists seats are elected from party lists and are designed to make the overall distribution of MSPs proportional. So if a party wins lots of constituencies they probably won’t get any regional seats and if they get lots of votes but no constituencies they get regional seats to balance that out.

The precise method to calculate the regional seats is called D’Hondt and is the same way we elect members of the European Parliament. This video from two years ago explains the list part very nicely I think.

22.52: Alasdair Thompson

Our friend the Lallands Peat Worrier has an interesting breakdown of the last YouGov poll over on his blog. Why not take a look while you wait for the real results.

22.50: Alasdair Thompson

From twitter I’m hearing the ballot boxes are swiftly approaching the Edinburgh count at Ingleston.

And that we have a competitor: Better Nation

22.48: Alasdair Thompson

For some reason Question Time seems to be on ten minutes later in Scotland than in England today. Seems somewhat appropriate then that one of the guests is Armando Iannucci.

22.37: Alasdair Thompson

A bit of gossip from earlier I may as well repeat while not much is happening.

Labour MEP David Martin was out in Edinburgh Western today and tweeted that votes were leaving (openly lesbian former MSP) Margaret Smith “like snow off a dyke”. He was questioned on the appropriateness of that remark on twitter by Edinburgh student paper The Journal and Edinburgh student Grum Smith, but so far doesn’t seem to have left the need to explain himself.

(see 19:20 http://storify.com/edjournal/2011-scottish-parliament-election)

22.31: Alasdair Thompson

No to AV!

A No to AV billboard (perhaps)

(via @denny)

22.24: Alasdair Thompson

And it begins.

Ballots arrive at the Cardiff count.

22.19: Alasdair Thompson

And speaking of AV, here’s an amusing ballot courtesy of friend of Bright Green and one time contributor Ric Lander:

No to AV (or Yes if that's not possible)

22.15: Alasdair Thompson

So I updated you all on when to expect results from councils, NI, Wales and Scotland but what about AV?

Well, it won’t even begin counting till tomorrow at 16:00. The final result should be declared around 20:00. By which time my UCU rep training will be done and I’ll be in the pub. Now which pubs in Edinburgh are likely to show live election results?

22.12: Alasdair Thompson

And here’re some of Adam’s thoughts on what to look out for prior to the SWC declaration tomorrow morning.

The feeling’s been good in Cardiff today. It’s very hard to extrapolate from my experience to a result across the region, but we’ve certainly had lots of people telling us they’re voting Green.

However, how well we do here will not just depend on the share of the vote we get. Because in Wales, each ‘top up’ list only has 4 places on it. So, how many votes we will need to win a seat on the list will depend on how many constituencies each party picks up. At the moment, it’s fairly balanced – Labour, Lib Dems, and Tories all hold seats in this region. But if the Lib Dems lose Cardiff Central (the seat held by fees rebel Jenny Willets at Westminster) to Labour, then they will likely be compensated with a place on the list unless their vote tumbles below ours. This will leave 3 places. Similarly, if the Tories lose Cardiff North to Julie Morgan – the former MP (until last year) and wife of popular former First Minister Rhodri – then they too could well be compensated by an extra place on the list – again, unless their overall share of the vote falls dramatically. However, throw into that the possibility of Tories picking up a seat elsewhere and things get more confusing.

To put it another way, if Labour win every constituency seat in South Wales Central, then Greens are in direct competition with Tories, Lib Dems, Plaid and the surprisingly strong UKIP for the 4 places on the list. We’d probably need about 20% to be sure of a place. And we aren’t gonna get that. If the constituencies stay roughly as they are now, split between different parties, then we will need around 6% or 7%. So, Green fans, if you want to be an armchair pundit, follow the announcement of the constituency results closely. For they could do more to determine our fate than our own vote will.

22.11: Alasdair Thompson

And here’s the first update of the night from one of our roving correspondents, and our first photo. Adam’s at the count in Cardiff where he’s spotted some fascists:

22.08: Alasdair Thompson

In Scotland the first result in may be in Iain “as interesting as the colour” Gray’s constituency of East Lothian, around 2:00. I can’t see him losing, but it’ll be interesting to see what sort of a majority he returns with. Last time he beat teh SNP by around 2500 votes, will his new found fame add to that total? Or will Lib Dems and Tories vote SNP to try to kick him out?

The regional results, where we’re standing won’t be in for a while, Lothian should be around 6:00, Glasgow 5:00, North East at 6:00 and Mid Scotland and Fife not till tomorrow afternoon (apparently after Highlands and Islands according to the PA !?).

How the constituency seats go will tell us a lot about what’s likely to happen, though. If Labour win all the seats in Glasgow or the SNP all the seats in North East so that they’re over-represented relative to their vote percentage that effectively raises the quota and makes things harder for us. In 2007 Patrick only just made it in the last place because the Nicola Sturgeon won Glasgow Govan. If Labour had won there the SNP would have had that list seat instead of Patrick.

It’ll be instructive too to see how the Lib Dem vote holds up, if they can keep seats like Edinburgh Southern, due around 4:00, that could be a bad sign for our hopes of overtaking them nationally.

22.07: Alasdair Thompson

In Northern Ireland we’ll be hoping Steven Agnew can overcome the unpopularity of the Irish Greens and hold onto the assembly seat of retiring MLA Brian Wilson and if the Greens can increase their number of councillors. Voting in Northern Ireland is by STV and with 6 member wards it could take some time to calculate the results, so we won’t see any results till tomorrow afternoon.

Also worth watching out how independent unionist left candidate Dawn Purvis and People before Profit Alliance (SWP) candidate Eamonn McCann do, with luck they’ll both be in Stormont soon.

22.04: Alasdair Thompson

In Wales our best bet, where we’re hoping to elect Welsh Green Party leader Jake Griffiths, is South Wales Central, covering Cardiff, the Vale and Glamorgan valleys. SWC should declare around 6:45; it’s going to be a long, tense night in Cardiff.

22.00: Alasdair Thompson

So that’s it, polls are closed, it’s all over for another year. Well, unless the coalition falls apart and we have another election in the Autumn (currently 4/1 at Ladbrokes, second favourite after 2015). Campaigners across the country will be toddling off to the pub for a well deserved pint before heading home to stare at a TV/computer till 6 in the morning or heading to a count to stare at a computer/TV till their result is declared at 6 in the morning. Here at Bright Green, though, we just getting started. Well not really, we’ve been campaigning for weeks (months) (years), but this live blog is just getting started anyway. Obviously not much has happened yet, so here’s rundown of when we might expect some of the most interesting results for Greens.

First up councils.

Not places I expect us to do very well, but should be among the first councils to declare
Tameside Council & Sunderland Council – 0:15

And some councils we might get councillors elected to
Liverpool Council – 2:00
Cambridge Council – 3:00
Norwich Council – 4:00

And further into the distance (after I’ll definitely have gone to bed, and got up again):
Kirkless Council – 12:30
Brighton and Hove Council – 15:00
Lancaster Council – 16:00

Are you a fanatical party hack? Do you believe the party you choose to vote for is perfect beyond measure, and every other party evil beyond redemption?

If you live in a constituency your party is unlikely to win, to you take no view on who your MP should be, on the grounds that elections are for secret self-expression rather than for the exertion of popular democracy? Is your life so perfect that politics to you is merely a bumper sticker, not a matter of public importance?

Do you think what the party tells you to think, say what the party tells you to say and do what the party tells you to do, as a sign of your singular loyalty?

Do you think every party other than yours is not only indefensible, but identically indefensible? If a Green supporter, do you believe there is no difference at all between Labour and the National Front? If a Tory, do you believe there are no distinguishing characteristics that would help you tell the Lib Dems and the Communist Party apart?

Are you an automaton, a robot, a deployable party resource devoid of critical faculty?

Then for god’s sake make sure you vote No tomorrow. We robots don’t want humans in charge.

This Thursday, 3 new Governments will be elected in the UK.

Yes, you read right, 3 countries in Britain are electing their governments this week. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are all going to the polls to vote for the people who will run their services for the next 4 (or 5) years. The chambers they are electing – the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood, The Welsh Assembly in Cardiff Bay, and The Northern Irish Assembly in Stormont – each has its own set of powers and its own politics. But each one makes significant decisions about the countries they govern.

Below is a quick guide to each of these, from a Green perspective – written for the English reader (or anyone else who is interested).

Scotland

In Scotland, Greens have been a presence in the Parliament since the multi-colour scarfed Robin Harper was the final Member of the Scottish Parliament elected in 1999. He has represented the Lothians region (which includes Edinburgh) ever since, standing down at this coming election. From 2003-7, he was joined by 6 other MSPs from across the country. Over the last 4 years, the party has been represented by Robin and the Glaswegian Patrick Harvie, with Patrick taking on the co-convener role.

In this year’s election, Greens have been clear about the ‘red line’ issues that would prevent any future MSPs from going into any coalition with anyone: no student fees, ever; no new nuclear or coal; no cuts. Yes, with the tax raising powers that Holyrood has, Greens have offered the Scottish electorate the chance to vote against all cuts. And such is our principled defence of public services, that we will not take part in any coalition which accepts the role of the Tory’s executioners north of the border.

Polls for Holyrood elections are pretty complex. The voting system means that people get 2 ballot papers – one for their constituency, and a second for a regional vote which aims to make the group of MSPs elected from each chunk of Scotland proportional. We only stand on this second ballot, and need roughly 6% in a region to elect an MSP. The current polls have us floating around the 7% mark nationally. This would mean we would elect around 8 MSPs were we to get the same vote everywhere. But if we were to actually get 5%, as some polls suggest, we could lose all our sears, so every vote counts, and every volunteer will make a huge difference. More broadly, the SNP, who have been the government, look likely to be returned ahead of a pathetic, mean spirited, and visionless Labour. Similarly, the Lib Dems are crashing through the floor in the polls, though it will be interesting to see if their hard work in some local areas helps them cling on. It isn’t looking great for the Scottish Socialists or Solidarity and I doubt George Galloway will make it (though we’ll see). We don’t really do Tories in Scotland.

In Wales

They have a similar voting system to Scotland, but it is a wee bit less proportional. There is yet to be a Green Member of the Welsh Assembly. However, with the best campaign they have ever run, with some proper targeting of resources, and with a huge amount of effort, recent polls have put the South Wales Central region within the grasp of Welsh Party leader Jake Griffiths. They too are campaigning with a clear opposition to cuts, and they need every bit of help they can get this week – if you live in the South of England, you may well be amazed how quick and easy it is to get the train to Cardiff. I (Adam) will be there on polling day, please do join us.

Labour in Wales have been a little more willing to separate themselves from the right wingers in London than have the Scots crowd. Their current First Minister – Carwyn Jones, and his predecessor Rhodri Morgan, have both been slightly more traditional lefties. And as a result, they have maintained their popularity, and look like they might back majority control of the Assembly this year, having been in coalition with Plaid Cymru for the last 4 years. Plaid, in contrast to the SNP, are going backwards. The latest polls have them polling roughly the same as the Tories, around the 20% mark. Lib Dems, surprise surprise, are tumbling to disaster. Worryingly, UKIP may just win their first AM, following on from their surprise success in the 2009 Euro elections in Wales.

More broadly, this is the first Welsh election to take place since the referendum on additional powers for the Assembly passed earlier this year. It will be interesting to watch how these powers are used in the next term.

In Northern Ireland:

Assembly members are elected using the Single Transferable Vote. Since the last round of elections, there has been 1 Green – Brian Wilson (no, not the Beach Boy). He was a longstanding councillor in the area covered by his seat (formerly a member of the Alliance Party), and is standing down at the coming election. However, in his place, another big character is looking to defend the seat – Stephen Agnew was widely respected as a cracking candidate for the Northern Irish Greens in the European elections, and has since bedded down and built a profile for himself. His job – defending a seat won partly on the back of someone else’s personal vote, and defending his Green siblings in the Republic – is not an enviable one. But if anyone can manage it, Steve is surely the man.

More broadly, Northern Ireland appears ready to re-elect the completely stark raving DUP to lead their government. Apart from their obsession with flags, and their offensive homophobia, this is a party with MPs who have requested nuclear waste dumps in their constituencies because, they believe, this will ensure that the Irish government will never want them in a united Ireland.

Other interesting results may include the election of long-time civil rights activist Eamon McCann in Derry. Dawn Purvis, who adds a unique progressive voice for unionism is seeking election as an independent, having left the working-class loyalist PUP over the ongoing UVF feud. This brave decision deserves to see Dawn re-elected – her radical politics, concern for social justice and feminism would be sorely missed.

In the contest for administration positions this Assembly election has featured a significant reduction in the tensions that have marked previous elections. There seems to be much less up for grabs. There are a range of factors in this. There is no new assembly, the DUP and Sinn Fein will be the largest unionist and nationalist parties respectively, and they’re known quantities in government. The big roadblocks of devolution of justice and decomissioning of IRA weapons have been removed. But the DUP and Sinn Fein have been thoroughly uninspiring in government. It’s hard to know what they’ve achieved, and their victories have been handed to them by the incompetence of the Ulster Unionists and SDLP.

The Ulster Unionists give every impression of a party that has no idea what it exists for. They’ve selected a hardline leader, who refuses to enter a Catholic chapel, and yet are still unable to land any blows on the DUP. This failure comes despite the DUP reneging on a promise not to talk to Sinn Fein, and instead getting into government with them. Only an utterly failed party could avoid seizing on the DUP’s lies. The Ulster Unionists are a failed party. The SDLP, by contrast, appear to have become so anonymous as to be totally unable to win vote share back from Sinn Fein. Rather than spiralling into oblivion, the SDLP are fading away.

Across the country, we will be voting in the first UK wide referendum in decades – the first in my lifetime. In Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, people will be voting to elect their devolved governments. Across England, there are local council elections. And, after months of campaigning, activists and candidates will be gasping for that last ounce of energy. Powered by late night take away or piles of toast, they will be sitting at their desks, printing out canvassing spreadsheets, phone databases and electoral rolls for the next day. They will be arranging their closing press stunts, and bundling their final newsletters. Their few moments in bed will be dominated not by sleep, but by the toss and turn of fearful speculation.

When the sun emerges, they will be knocking on doors. They will be pushing leaflets through letter boxes, or they will be telephoning strangers to remind them to vote. And in doing so, they will be making history, one person at a time; changing the world, one person at a time.

Politics is rarely about winning the argument. And politics is not about effective rhetoric. No, ultimately, politics is about a negotiation between organised groups of people. That means that people need to be organised. Politics is about pounding pavements and grasping moments of conversations. Politics is about leaflets through letter boxes and the reader on the other side. It is about their lives, their experiences, and which side of history those things put them on.

Ultimately, politics is about working together to improve our communities. And this week, we all have a choice. Because it will be all to easy for progressives to sit in our armchairs and cheer as our side wins, or moan about the failures of those running the campaigns we support. But that’s not good enough. Because those campaigns are our campaigns. It is our history that they seek to make.

The cynicism of many activists prevents us from encouraging people to vote one way or another, but such cynicism rejects the potential for any change now, through current structures. And that rejection is as stifling of progress as is the belief that radical change is impossible.

So, this week, it’s time to help get out the vote. If you want to help the Yes to AV campaign, you can get in touch through their website. You could help the Scottish Greens elect more MSPs who will stand up against cuts,  the Welsh Greens elect their first Assembly member, or the Northern Irish Greens to maintain their voice of reason. You can help the Greens in Norwich or Brighton who are both within sight of becoming the first Green controlled city councils. Or you can help numerous other local parties, or, if you must, other campaigns entirely.

But this week, people across the country will go to the polls. And so this week, let’s remember to get out the vote. Let’s not sit back and form an phalanx of dinner table critics. Let’s give every spare moment, every spare second, to securing those things we can change this week, because this is get out the vote week. And history is made by those who ensure people turn up.

Is it just me or was anyone else hoping that that final Caroline Lucas speech ended with “the struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting”? Probably just as well for everyone that it didn’t, but that is of course exactly what she meant.

Though superficially this broadcast opens like the kind of vox-pop that ends with a councillor pledging to fix potholes, it is in fact a broadcast about struggle.

The voters interviewed are looking for councillors that will fight. They want someone to help them fight cuts to the arts, social services, healthcare, transport, environmental initiatives and jobs.

It has become a shibboleth of the main parties that no-one is political. That all anyone ever cares about is getting potholes fixed, as cheaply as possible. But in fact we have not lost hope in our collective ability to build a better future, nor have we lost the ability to recognise the government’s political attack on our way of life.

The reason why the Greens are increasingly the party of that movement is because we are unashamedly political. Green councillors, for whom winning every seat is a battle, are hard workers who do an exceptional job of fixing potholes. But additionally, and uniquely, they are prepared to stand against cuts and for greater equality and justice as both a matter of principle and of practice.

It’s the kind of thing most politicians think can’t be done. While they lionise the names of Wilberforce or Roosevelt or Attlee, they have forgotten how to emulate them; they even deny it’s possible. We live in a post-ideological age, they say, where politicians are managers and the best we can hope for is to slow the decline of our welfare state.

They say Green belief in the contrary is nothing but youthful naiveté. In fact the opposite is true: we remember.

I grew up and worked in Australia before moving to the UK 13 years ago. Having recently become more actively involved in the UK Green Party I have been following the 2010 Australian election and the performance of the Australian Greens closely.

Because I am looking at Australian Politics from a progressive perspective I will mix the Liberal Party (like the UK Conservatives), the National Party and the Liberal National Party into a single pudding the called the LNP.

Up until the last 8 or so years during the gradual rise of the Greens in the Australian Parliament*, Australian Politics had been dominated by 3 parties, the LNP, Labour and the Australian Democrats (AD). The AD always struggled to gain decent electoral success and the most influence they ever gained was to have 9 Senators and often held the balance of power in the Australian Senate**. Like the LibDems in the UK it was often hard to know what the AD stood for. In April 2001 Natasha Stott Despoja became leader of the AD and pulled the AD to the left on social and economic issues, but bitter infighting continued amongst the leadership of the AD and Stott Despoja resigned from the leadership in August 2002. Since then the AD have been in electoral meltdown with their vote collapsing and in 2008 lost the last of their remaining seats in the Senate. In the 2010 election the total vote for the AD in the Senate was 1.3% and the vote in the House of Representatives was 0.2 %. The Australian Greens have completely taken over as Australia’s third
party.

In the 2010 election the total first preference Green vote in the House of Representatives*** was 11.4 % and in the Senate the Greens polled from 10% in New South Wales (NSW) to 20% in Tasmania. The Green vote in the two territories ACT and the Northern Territory was also high but didn’t result in the election of any senators because both Territories only send 2 Senators each to the Senate. I believe that the number of Green Party Senators is a fair reflection of their national vote. In the 2010 election 2 of the 5 Green Party Senators were up for reelection and they were returned to office plus the Green Party gained 4 new Senators equalling the best results of the AD in 1999.

In the 2010 election The Australian Greens gained their first seat in the Australian House of Representatives in the seat of Melbourne, but they have also done well in a number of other seats, for example Batman also in Melbourne where they came second, Grayndler in Sydney where the electoral commission needs to do a recount**** of the second preference votes and there is still a slim chance that the Greens will win. The Greens also did well in the Seat of Denison in Tasmania though this is more complicated. The seat was won by a former Green Party candidate standing as an Independent who beat the Green Party candidate by 2% and as a result the the second Preferences of the Green Party candidate flowed to the Independent helping the independent to defeat the sitting Labor Party candidate. The Greens also did well in a number of other inner city seats like the seat of Sydney. Here the Greens were just beaten into 2nd place by the LNP and if the Greens had come second the second preferences by the other parties would have meant that they would have unseated the sitting Labor Party member. Because the Green Party came third and not second the second preferences of those who voted Green went predominantly to the Labor Party making the final Labour winning margin high.

The Preferential Voting System is far from proportional. The Greens received 11.4 % of the vote but have managed to win only 1 seat, a proportional system would have resulted in around 18 seats in the House of Representatives.

I wrote this piece because I wanted to think about the implications of the performance of the Greens in the Australian election and what this means for the Greens in the UK. In the end I don’t think there is a lot that we can learn. But there are a few things.

1. I think the advantage of the Preferential Voting System over First Past the Post is that it makes the support for smaller parties like the Greens more visible. I think that the 11.4 % vote for the Greens still under represents the support for the Australian Greens because some people are confused how the voting system works and still only vote for the main parties because of the fear of wasting their vote. However, I believe that the total vote of 1% for the Greens in the UK 2010 hides badly their real level of support because the first past the post voting system frightens people into voting conservatively.

2. The electoral results in the Australian Senate for the Greens
demonstrates the potential for success that the Greens can achieve with a decent electoral system.

3. I think the biggest lesson from Australia relates to the LibDems and the demise of the Australian Democrats. Party members were mostly to the left of their representatives in the Senate and when the membership elected a leader who more accurately reflected their views this resulted in instability at the top level of the party and permanent infighting. The infighting continued after the removal of Stott Despoja and the return of the AD to their usual vague politics turned off the Australian electorate.
4. The Greens in the UK need to do everything they can to show that it is normal to vote Green. They should be highlighting where possible not just Caroline Lucas’ win in Brighton but also the results of the elections for the European Union. This is not deceptive in relation to Westminster elections because the first past the post voting system makes voters who support smaller parties fearful to vote for the party they believe in. But once they understand that voting Green gets results support for the Greens will increase.

5. That for the Greens the Democrats reduce their voice for being heard. The electoral success in Australia for the Greens only blossomed after the AD self destructed. Once that had happened the Greens started to do well. Not just because they picked up former AD supporters but because they stand for decent social democratic policies as well as environmental policies. Their voice as the third party in Australian politics is much clearer than that of the old AD and that their voice in the media is now heard more often because they are the third party. Unlike the AD the Greens I believe will hold and sometimes even exceed the 9 Senators that they have elected because they represent a truly socially left progressive party.

The similarity of outcome between the recent UK and Australian elections is considerable. Neither of the main parties are able to form a Government on their own, the result in both cases makes it slightly easier for the Conservatives to form a Government though I think in Australia the result is more finely balanced than in the UK. The biggest difference is that the Senate in Australia is really going to be hard going for the Conservatives because Labor and the Greens hold a clear majority which will only increase in size when the Greens get to add their new Senators. The Conservatives will find negotiating with the Greens much harder going than they did when they had to negotiate with the Australian Democrats to get their legislation through the Senate.

* The Australian Parliament has two chambers, the House of Representatives often called the Lower house and the Senate often called the Upper House.

** The Senate has 76 members 12 for each state and 2 each for the two Territories (NT and ACT). At each election all of the Senators from the NT and ACT are up for reelection and half of the Senators from each state are up for reelection unless there is an Double Dissolution of Parliament triggered by a political crisis. For example the sacking of the Whitlam Government by the Governor General Sir John Kerr in 1975 in which case all Senators are up for reelection. Senators are elected for a fixed term of 6 years which means that the Senators do not take up office until the completion of the term of their predecessors in the Senate. During the first 7 months of the Rudd Government the Senate was controlled by the opposition as the Senators elected in December 2007 did not take up their seats until July 2008. Since each state has the same number of Senators NSW with a population of 7 million is underrepresented whilst Tasmania with a population of 500 thousand is over represented.

*** The House of Representatives has 150 members and at a General election all members are up for reelection. The party that controls the majority of seats in the House of Representatives forms the Government. Voting uses the preferential voting system.

**** Preferential Voting system is different from the Alternative Vote (AV) system or AV+. The Preferential Voting system in a House of Representatives allows voters to show their first preference thus making it possible to see what kind of electoral support a party like the Greens has unlike the the first past the post system in the UK. However in terms of electoral outcome the Preferential Voting system is still strongly biased in favour of the two major political parties.

***** The need for the electoral commission to do a recount is because during the count on election night the electoral commission counted the second preferences based on assumption that the contest was between the Liberal and Labor candidates. The recount will not start until Monday.

A few weeks ago I was sitting in a library when I received a phone call. It was my friend and Leader of the Green Party on Norwich City Council, Claire Stephenson. She and all the other councillors elected in 2006 (thirteen in all) had been removed from office about half an hour earlier. This wasn’t the result of any wrongdoings these councillors had committed, but the end of a complicated struggle between the present government, the last government, and the High Court over changes to local government in Norwich. It was a few weeks later before we knew that the byelections to the Council would be on the 9th September

We go into this election with a political balance of:

9 Labour
9 Green
4 Lib Dems
4 Conservatives

Which means that The Green Party has a very good chance of becoming the largest party on a District Council for the first time in history. Last year in the County Council elections we took 7 of the 13 seats in the City and in the General Election we doubled our vote in Norwich South despite the national squeeze on the Green Party. But byelections are unpredictable, other parties will be doing there best to bring activists from around the Country to help their campaigns, the date of elections also means that turnout will probably be low.

We need people to come and help. To go door-to-door canvassing and delivering leaflets to let people know what we are standing for in these elections, first and foremost ‘An Open Council‘, a major drive on renewables using new funding arrangements, and promoting the local economy. This will not be easy when the Coalition Government seems intent on pushing Britain back into recession, but we need to challenge their logic that draining the economy of public money will somehow make things all right, and to, where we can, join with other councils and allies in Parliament, Assemblies, and social movements to resist and oppose the worst excesses of the ConDems.

In my ‘series’ here on BG (see here) exploring the direction our Party (GPEW) needs to take, I have covered a little about our policy debates, and the potential we have for growth at local level. But I now want to turn again to our most important resource: our members, and their activism.

It seems to me desperately important that we find ways of involving our members more in our Party. As a democratic organisation, we live or die by our ability to shape decisions through everyone’s participation in our decisions. As we move forward, and gain more successes, with the growing numbers of members that I described in my previous posts, accountability becomes ever more important. (Looking outside our Party, we can of course easily see what happens when accountability and transparency is reduced to a charade.)

It disturbs me for example that we have such strict rules against campaigning for internal elections within our Party. How are we expecting new members to get more involved in the Party, if we don’t even make it easy for them to feel involved in our internal elections? Didn’t they opt to join a political organisation?

And it’s even more important that selection of our election candidates proper be fully open and engaging. It is possible, currently, for very small numbers of members to vote for candidates on lists for Europe and regional elections in selections that are not well known about and for candidates who are themselves not very well known (especially if they are newish to the Party). Our procedures may be abstractly “fair” to candidates, but are potentially very unfair to the people voting, who may find themselves asked to vote for people who may get elected on the basis of a piece of paper and a passport photograph alone. Not to mention being potentially unfair, in practice, to some candidates, newcomers in particular.

This stands in contrast with procedures in Labour, Conservative and Lib Dems, where candidates are expected to canvas their members, and, in the Conservatives’ case, may even be subject to open, public primaries. We must ask ourselves whether our procedures are more open and democratic, or potentially more closed (in practice) and therefore more prone to promote a party “elite”.

However we view our internal selections, surely we must all agree that we badly need to find ways of making it easier for members, and especially our burgeoning numbers of new members (including recruits from the LibDems), to get involved in the Party. We need to try to re-design the Party to be ‘self-explaining’, rather than somewhat obscure and labyrynthine.

Similarly, I think that most ordinary members feel at present extremely remote from the policy-making process in our Party. It is good that we now have our ‘Policies for a Sustainable Society’ separated off from our manifesto commitments for upcoming elections and from the day-to-day decisions that our elected politicians make. But doesn’t that mean that we now need to reconfigure Conference? Shouldn’t a lot of the emphasis at Green Party Conference now shift toward the making of actual policy in response to actual circumstances?

At present, we do this in the Green Party Conference primarily by means only of ‘Emergency Motions’. It seems to me – and I know I am not alone in this thought – that that really isn’t good enough any more. We need to reconfigure Conference so that a significant percentage of its time is spent looking at the actual issues of the day. Things like the Digital Economy Bill, the AV referendum, House of Lords reform, the ‘big society’. . .  The impending move to delegate conferences will offer us an extremely exciting opportunity to involve the membership much more in these kinds of issues and questions, the important and more immediate questions facing us, policy-wise. We need to be working now to ensure that delegate conferences are thinking about and determining where we stand on issues that matter, to our growing numbers of elected politicians.

Apart from anything else, our new leadership model and our breakthrough into Westminster require that we ensure that our leaders are accountable, and are benefitting from the full extent of the advice and input and confirmation that we can offer them. Caroline needs to be given the full benefit of what help we can give her in facing, alone, the rest of Parliament. Conference ought to be much more about that now, and much less about thinking about the shape of utopia.

And surely Spring Conference should become what it is for other political parties: primarily a training event and a rally, rather than spending lots of our time, when elections are imminent, focussing on ‘policies for a sustainable society’.

I was delighted with Jane’s and Tom’s blog-posts in response to my original post. But I confess that I have been slightly surprised that there haven’t been more people involved in debating these matters. As I say: I really hope that we get debating these things now, and help thereby ensure that Conference this year reflects an awareness of these issues as requiring and deserving action. As they are.